Yuriy 0:00

in 2011, the median household income in this ZIP code was about $36,000. Today, it's $72,000. It doubled. That is the story of the west side of South Philly, New Bold, West Passyunk, Girard Estate, And today I'm breaking down why this ZIP code just posted some of the strongest rental numbers we've seen all year. 33 days on market and leases closing with 77% of asking price. And there is a second story that explains why demand here is so durable. Zillow just published data showing the average American renter now saves over $1,000 a month compared to buying. In a ZIP code where a home sells for about $300,000, That math means your tenants are staying put, and I'll show you exactly what that means for your rental strategy. Welcome back to the Philly Landlord Guy, the show built for rental owners, property managers, and investors who want real, no fluff facts about Philadelphia market, neighborhood by neighborhood. I'm your host, Yuriy Skripnichenko, the guy with the impossible last name, licensed real estate broker and certified property manager here in the city. Today we're diving deep on 19145, the west side of Deep South Philly. This completes our South Philadelphia trilogy after 19146 and 19148, and honestly, it might be the strongest of the three. Citywide numbers first. Across Philadelphia in September, There were 1,659 new units listed and 1,185 units rented. The median listed price was $1,800 and the median rented price was $1,775, just a $25 gap. So the citywide market continues to price accurately. But here's the September story. Days on market jumped to 58, up from 46 in August. That's the seasonal slowdown arriving. The school year moves are done, and we're heading into slowest leasing months of the year. Months of supply 2.5. One silver lining, October inventory sits at 4,072 units, down from 4,400 a year ago. The market is tighter than the last fall, even as it slows. So that's the city. Accurate pricing, but the real seasonal slowdown, 58 days. Hold that number because 19145 just blew right past it. Before the deep dive, I want to hit a piece of national data that directly explains what's happening in zip codes like 19145. Zillow latest trend report in September found that the average US renter now pays $1,066 less per month than the typical home buyer. Average rent nationally $1,948. The typical mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, a little bit over $3,000. That's nearly $12,800 a year in savings for renting, And the gap is widening. Over the past six months, the monthly cost of buying jumped $140, while average rent rose only $32. On top of that, Zillow and Thumbtack calculate the hidden cost of ownership, maintenance, insurance, closing costs, property taxes At nearly $16,000 a year nationally. Zillow's own chief economist put it bluntly, "The idea that renting is a consolation prize, is outdated." Now let's localize that to 19145. The median home sales price in this ZIP code is about $302,000, up 4.1% year over year per Redfin. Running numbers on that purchase today, with 10 to 15% down at current rates, you're looking at roughly $2300 to $2500 a month all in with taxes and insurance. The median rent that actually closed in September, $1773. That's a gap of $500 to $700 every single month in favor of renting. What does it mean for you as a landlord? Three things. One, your good tenants are not leaving to buy. The classic move-out reason in a neighborhood like this, "We bought a house," is happening less because the math doesn't work for them. Two, that makes renewals your biggest profit lever. A tenant who stays saves you turnover cost and vacancy, and the data says they want to stay. Offer the renewal early, keep the increase reasonable, and lock in long terms. Three, the renter by choice segment is real and growing. Well-paid people who could technically buy are choosing to rent. Treat your property and serve your tenants accordingly because these tenants have options. Now the ZIP code itself. 19145 is the west side of Deep South Philly, everything west of Broad, roughly from Mifflin down to the stadiums out to the Schuylkill. About 47,000 residents, 19,000 households, 57% owner-occupied, 43% renter. A meaningfully bigger renter share than its neighbor 19148. And the income story, the headline of this episode. The census data for the zip code is remarkable. Median household income was $35,988 in 2011, $46,540 in 2019, $59,216 in 2021, and seventy one thousand nine hundred sixty five in 2024. It doubled in 13 years, with most of the gain in the last five. And, for the family household, the median is even higher, is around $87,000. This is the East Passyunk effect spreading west across Broad Street, plus young professionals priced out of Center City and Graduate Hospital, land here. The same wave, we documented in 19146. It just arrived years later on this side of Broad, which means parts of the zip code are still mid-transformation. That's an opportunity for you. we have a few different pockets here. New Bold, the northeast corner, roughly 17th to Broad, Mifflin up to Washington direction, alongside of 19145, 19146 line. It's dense, nearly 38,000 people per square mile, and the most visibly transformed pocket. This is the Passyunk spillover territory. Renovated row homes, new infill, bars and coffee shops along the 17th Street and Snyder corridors. So West Passyunk is between 18th and 25th, Mifflin to Passyunk Avenue. Here's the number that tells you who your tenant is. To 44 age bracket, the prime renting demographic, has a median household income of about $90,700. These are well-paid young households, And the neighborhood association is active and engaged. Clean, updated product rents fast here. Girard Estate is the historic jewel of the ZIP. A planned community built in 1920s on Girard's Old Estate, actual detached and twin homes, with porches and yards, a genuine rarity in South Philly. This niche pulls the median household income here about, $96,000, poverty at 13% versus 20% citywide. Mostly owner-occupied with limited rental inventory, but when a rental does surface here, it commands top dollar and attracts long-term family tenants. The 17 bus runs right through it. And we have, Stadium District Edge, the southern end, sharing the sports complex story we covered in, the 19148 PZ. The new arena at Broad and Pattison, targeting 2030, sits on the zip code doorstep too. Same long-hold thesis applies to the western blocks. One more thing worth knowing, the Belt Weather District. The old refinery site along the Schuylkill River, over 13 acres, on the zip code's western edge, it's being redeveloped by Hilco into a logistic and life science campus. It's a multi-year project, But it's converting the zip code's historic industrial liability into a long-term employment anchor. Combined with the arena to the south, 19145 is bracketed by two of the biggest development stories in the city in the most recent history. As far as the transit here, The Broad Street Line runs the full eastern border, Tasker-Morris, Snyder, Oregon, and Energy, plus, the 17s bus right through the heart of the zip code. strong transit access for your tenant base. Now the data, and it's strong across the board. In September, there were 42 units listed and 20 units rented in 19145. End of the month inventory 87 units. Months of supply 2.8. Days on the market 33. That's, 25 days faster than the citywide average of 58. In a month where a whole city slowed down for the season, 19145 didn't. That's what real demand looks like. Now the number I want you to really absorb. The median listed price was $1,850 and the median rented price was $1,773. That's a $77 gap, about 4%. Landlords in the ZIP code are pricing accurately, and the market is meeting them essentially at the asking price. Compare that to the $200, $300, or even $445 gaps that we've documented in other ZIP codes this year. The average sold price was 1,784, right in line with the median, meaning that the product mix is consistent here, not a tale of two extremes like we saw in University City. And the trend is up October's current median list price is $1,800 versus $1,700 at this time last year, roughly a 6% year-over-year increase in asking rents that the market is actually absorbing because the incomes here support it, not unlike 19136 that we covered in the last episode, where the landlords are overpricing and, income is not catching up. One watch item here, October inventory is at 89 units with the inventory accumulation reading at 4.5. Supply is building a little bit as we head into the slow season. Price accurately from day one, and you will stay on the right side of that 33 days average. This is the theme in all of our pieces this year. You need to price accurately to stay on the lower side of the days on the market. Now, quick thank you to our sponsor at TrustArt Realty. 19145 is a market that, rewards accurate pricing. $77 is all that separates asking from closing here. If you want to know exactly where your property fits, TrustArt Realty offers all of our listeners a free rental analysis with rental comps for your actual block. Reach out at trustartrealty@phillylandlordguy.com or go to trustartrealty.com And hit the link to schedule your consultation. Okay, let's land this. 19145 completes the South Philly picture, and it looks like this is the strongest performing of the three. Income doubled since 2011, 33 days turnaround, 4% list-to-close gap, rents up 6% year-over-year, and two major development anchors, the Arena and the Bellwether District. And with renting now beating buying by over $1,000 a month nationally, your well-paid tenants here have every reason to stay. Lean into renewals, keep your product sharp for the renter by choice crowd, and price your pocket. Newbold and West Passyunk are not Girard Estate, and none of them are the stadium blocks. If this was useful, subscribe, leave a review, and drop your zip code questions in the comments. I read them and answer them myself. Keep your properties clean, stay legal, and I will catch you in the next episode